Aluminum prices remain high, while aluminum scrap prices generally adjust downward [Daily Review of Aluminum Scrap]

SMM, June 20:

Today, spot primary aluminum prices fell by 50 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. SMM A00 aluminum ingot prices closed at 20,720 yuan/mt, and the overall aluminum scrap market prices pulled back. As the off-season in June progresses beyond the halfway mark, downstream scrap utilization enterprises are experiencing weak order releases, with procurement primarily driven by immediate needs.

Today, the centralized quotes for baled UBC aluminum scrap range from 15,350 to 15,850 yuan/mt (tax not included), while shredded aluminum tense scrap quotes range from 15,800 to 17,300 yuan/mt (tax not included). Regionally, areas such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong closely track aluminum prices, with price adjustments ranging from 50 to 100 yuan/mt. In contrast, regions like Henan, Foshan, and Guizhou lag behind aluminum price adjustments, with prices remaining unchanged from yesterday. By product, both baled UBC and shredded aluminum tense scrap prices have pulled back by 100 yuan/mt compared to yesterday.

Considering the actual difficulty in shipping goods, aluminum scrap suppliers are adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards price adjustments amidst rising aluminum prices. Next week, the aluminum scrap market is expected to continue the pattern of "fluctuating at highs with product differentiation," maintaining an overall strong trend. Due to persistent supply shortages, aluminum tense scrap prices exhibit significant resilience, with shredded aluminum tense scrap (tax not included) fluctuating within the range of 15,800 to 17,400 yuan/mt, showing relatively limited declines. Baled UBC aluminum scrap is expected to experience a mild pullback to 15,200 to 15,600 yuan/mt (tax not included), with a potential weekly decline of 100 to 150 yuan/mt. Regional price differences will further widen: East China (Shanghai, Shandong) may see daily price adjustments of up to 200 yuan/mt due to the linkage with primary aluminum prices and policy disruptions, resulting in significant volatility. Inland provinces (such as Jiangxi and Hubei) may lack the momentum to follow price increases due to supply-demand differentiation and delayed price adjustments, potentially leading to a further expansion of price differences.

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